Реферат: Bayes Theory Essay Research Paper REVIEW OF

The search was complicated by the fact that they had pinpointed a location that was at the bottom of a deep undersea ravine, making the search very difficult. After just two weeks of searching, president Johnson called the man responsible for the search to Washington to be briefed on the search. Upon learning the technique that had been used to determine the location of bomb, Johnson was furious. He could not believe the hope of finding the bomb before the Russian’s was tied to what appeared to outsiders, to such a plan of betting on where experts thought it would be. He called for another review of the data and circumstances by yet another group of mathematicians. The second group of mathematicians gathered, looked at the method used to determine the bombs location and could develop nothing better, and reported to president Johnson that there was no better way. Within days of the second group reporting to Johnson and after weeks of searching and revising the probabilities based on actual results, the bomb was located and eventually retrieved. The bomb was exactly where the team’s latest Bayesian calculations said it would be. The theory developed by an 18th century minister had found America’s lost Bomb.

CONCLUSION

As demonstrated by the examples shown in this paper, Bayesian thought has found its place in statistical thinking. It provides a mathematical approach to what is often called a hunch, and takes advantage of information an expert may have, but it unable to put into words. It allows one to refine ones theories about outcomes based on what has actually occurred, in practical use, it works well.

There are some that say its ineffective for the very reason it has gained much favor, but for many it serves a useful purpose in mathematical thinking. A amateur mathematician changed the was we see and calculate probabilities, and had it not been for his friend, Richard Price, who sent his essays to the Royal Society after his death, we would be without this very useful theory.

Bibliography

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