Реферат: Creating Market Economy in Eastern Europe
761175
Real per Capita Disposable Income in 1989,
1980 = 100
116
115
115
126
121
n.a.
114
Current Economic Reform
Aggressive pursuit of transition, privatization continues
Ambitious transition plan in progress: stabilization, privatization, and attention to trade
Transition pursued with caution; initial results not as good as in Poland but positive
Reform began in 1991; price flexibility, privatization, and trade reform
Modest reforms from 1991; price adjustment, some privatization, and foreign investment
1990-91: Limited first steps; decentralization, some privatization, and restructuring
Political turmoil and an economy largely without guidance
Second, the initial results of the transition have been generally as expected. In Table2 I summarize a number of useful indicators. As anticipated, in all cases there has been a downturn in output — occasionally a downturn of significant magnitude. Inflation has been very uneven and in some cases (such as Yugoslavia and pre-reform Poland) very rapid. However, post-reform inflation rates generally leave some room for optimism, especially in those cases where stabilization policies have been developed and applied.
Third, we have noted that initial privatization usually proceeded rather quickly but that, after the privatization of small firms (especially in the service sphere), the pace of change decreased significantly. This latter development reflects the onset of major difficulties: the private sector must now absorb large, state-owned, loss-making, and often technologically backward enterprises. The privatization of these firms presents serious problems, as does a setting where valuation is fraught with difficulties, buyers are hard to find, claims from the past must be handled, and contemporary management skills are wanting.
Fourth, although inflation and unemployment have necessitated a growing concern for safety-net measures of various types, there is also a sense that the availability of consumer goods and services has improved.
All of these considerations seem to support a measure of optimism about the eventual outcome of the transition process. At the same time, there are important dimensions where change must be sustained if the transition is to be successful. Stabilization policies must be maintained — a tall order in those cases where consumer patience is lacking. Privatization must proceed, and it must increasingly reflect the contours of new market arrangements, including the infrastructure required for markets to function effectively. These changes must be sustained even in the face of political dissension, consumer dissatisfaction and an uncertain international economic environment. These restraining forces will in large part dictate the pace and ultimate success or failure of the transition process.
3. Moldova’s way to an open economy.
Moldova has faced significant and escalating economic difficulties since its acquisition of independence in 1991. This situation is reflected in the main macroeconomic indicator for the republic - Gross Domestic Product (GDP) -, which has dropped by nearly 60%.
The agricultural sector has been strongly impacted by the nation’s economic difficulties, as well as by adverse environmental conditions. In 1993 Moldova’s agricultural harvest was adequate, a considerable portion remained uncollected and unprocessed due to lack of fuel, transportation, and financial resources. In addition, due to early November frosts, hundreds of thousands of tons of fruit, vegetables, and tobacco were damaged beyond use. In the summer of 1994, a simmilar stream of natural disasters, including a drought, followed by a hurricane, followed by a flood, caused even greater losses than those experienced the previous year. The devasting flooding in August 94 alone brought about losses totaling US$ = 220 million, which exceeded the amount of Moldova’s industrial activities include: refrigerator, television furniture, clothing, and agricultural machinery production. The Republic’s threatens the productivity of this sector. Of the republic’s 262 production enterprises, 60% experienced production declines. Over all in 1993, many industrial