Топик: Foreign exchange market (Иностранный обменный рынок)

When speed is not a critical factor, a mail transfer of foreign exchange may be used. Such transfers are written orders from the holder of a foreign exchange deposit to a bank to pay a designated individual or institution on presentation of a draft. A mail transfer may require days to execute, depending on the speed of mail deliveries.

· Bills of Exchange

One of the most important of all international financial instruments is the Bill of Exchange. Frequently today the word draft is used instead of bill. Either way, a draft or bill of exchange is a written order requiring a person, business firm, or bank to pay a specified sum of money to the bearer of the bill.

We may distinguish sight bills, which are payable on demand, from time bills, which mature at a future date and are payable only at that time. There are also documentary hills, which typically accompany the international shipment of goods. A documentary bill must be accompanied by shipping papers allowing importers to pick up their merchandise. In contrast, a clean hill has no accompanying documents and is simply an order to a bank to pay a certain sum of money. The most common example arises when an importer requests its bank to send a letter of credit to an exporter in another country. The letter authorizes the exporter to draw bills for payment, either against the importer's bank or against one of its correspondent banks.

· Foreign Currency and Coin

Foreign currency and coin itself (as opposed to bank deposits) is an important instrument for payment in the foreign exchange markets. This is especially true for tourists who require pocket money to pay for lodging, meals, and transportation. Usually this money winds up in the hands of merchants accepting it in payment for purchases and is deposited in domestic banks. For example, U.S. banks operating along the Canadian and Mexican borders receive a substantial volume of Canadian dollars and Mexican pesos each day. These funds normally are routed through the banking system back to banks in the country of issue, and the U.S. banks receive credit in the form of a deposit denominated in a foreign currency. This deposit may then be loaned to a customer or to another bank.

· Other Foreign Exchange Instruments

A wide variety of other financial instruments are denominated in foreign currencies, most of this small in amount. For example, traveler's checks denominated in dollars and other convertible currencies may be spent directly or converted into the currency of the country where purchases are being made. International investors frequently receive interest coupons or dividend warrants denominated in foreign currencies. These documents normally are sold to a domestic bank at the current exchange rate.

III. Foreign exchange rates

1. Determining foreign exchange rates

As I’ve already mentioned the prices of foreign currencies expressed in terms of other currencies are called foreign exchange rates . There are today three markets for foreign exchange: the spot market, which deals in currency for immediate delivery; the forward market, which involves the future delivery of foreign currency; and the currency futures and options market, which deals in contracts to hedge against future changes in foreign exchange rates. Immediate delivery is defined as one or two business days for most transactions. Future delivery typically means one, three, or six months from today.

Dealers and brokers in foreign exchange actually set not one, but two, exchange rates for each pair of currencies. That is, each trader sets a bid (buy) price and an asked (sell) price. The dealer makes a profit on the spread between the bid and asked price, although that spread is normally very small.

2. Supply and Demand for foreign exchange

The underlying forces that determine the exchange rate between two currencies are the supply and demand resulting from commercial and financial transactions (including speculation). Foreign-exchange supply and demand schedules relate to the price, or exchange rate. This is illustrated in Figure 1 , which assumes free-market or flexible exchange rates.

Figure 1

Before examining this figure, we need to define two terms. Depreciation (appreciation) of a domestic currency is a decline (rise) brought about by market forces in the price of a domestic currency in terms of a foreign currency. In contrast, devaluation (revaluation) of a domestic currency is a decline (rise) brought about by government intervention in the official price of a domestic currency in terms of a foreign currency. Depreciation or appreciation is the appropriate concept to deal with floating, or flexible, exchange rates, whereas devaluation or revaluation is appropriate when dealing with fixed exchange rates.

In the dollar-pound exchange market, the demand schedule for pounds represents the demands of U.S. buyers of British goods, U.S. travelers to Britain, currency speculators, and those who wish to purchase British stocks and securi­ties. It slopes downward because the dollar price to U.S. residents of British goods and services declines as the exchange rate declines. An item selling for £1 in Britain would cost $2.00 in the U.S. if the exchange rate were £1/$2.00 U.S. If this exchange rate declined to £1/$1.50 U.S., the same item is $.50 cheaper in the United States, increasing the demand for British goods and thus the demand for pounds. The supply schedule of pounds represents the pounds supplied by British buyers of U.S. goods, British travelers, currency speculators, and those who wish to purchase U.S. stocks and securities. It slopes upward because the pound price to British residents of U.S. goods and services rises as the $ price of the £ falls. Assuming an exchange rate of £1 /$2.00 U.S., a $2.00 item in the U.S. costs £1 in Britain. If this exchange rate declined to £1/$1.50 U.S., the same item is 33 percent more expensive in Britain, decreasing the demand for dollars to buy U.S. goods and thus reducing the supply of pounds. The equilibrium exchange rate in Figure 1 is £1/$2.00 U.S. The amounts supplied and demanded by the market participants are in balance.

Figure 2

To understand better the schedules, several of the factors that might cause these curves to shift are discussed next. If there is a decrease in national income and output in one country relative to others, that nation's currency tends to appreciate relative to others. The domestic income level of any country is a major determinant of the demand for imported goods in that country (and hence a determinant of the demand for foreign currencies). Figure 2 shows the effects of a decline in national income in Britain (assuming all other factors remain constant). The decrease in British income implies a decrease in demand for goods and services (both domestic and foreign) by British people. This reduction in demand for imported goods leads to a reduction in the supply of pounds, which is shown by a leftward shift of the supply curve in Figure 2 (from S to S). If the exchange rate floats freely, the British pound appreciates against the U.S. dollar. If the exchange rate is artifi­cially maintained at the old equilibrium of £1/$2.00 U.S., however, a balance-of-payments surplus (for Britain) likely results.

Figure 3

In Figure 3 , an initial exchange-rate equilibrium of £1/$2.00 U.S. is assumed. Now presume the rate of price inflation in Britain is higher than in the United States. British products become less attractive to U.S. buyers (because their prices are increasing faster), which causes the demand schedule for pounds to shift leftward (D to D). On the other hand, because prices in Britain are rising faster than prices in the U.S., U.S. products become more attractive to British buyers, which causes the supply schedule of pounds to shift to the right (S to S). In other words, there is an increased demand for U.S. dollars in Britain. The reduced demand for pounds and the increased supply (resulting from British purchases of U.S. goods) man­dates a newer, lower, equilibrium exchange rate. Furthermore, as long as the inflation rate in Britain exceeded that in the United States, the British pound would continually depreciate against the U.S. dollar.

Differences in yields on various short-term and long-term securities can influence portfolio investments among different countries and also the flow of funds of large banks and multinational corporations. If British yields rise relative to others, an investor wishing to take advantage of these higher interest rates must first obtain British pounds to buy the securities. This increases the demand for British pounds shift the demand schedule in Figure 4 to the right (D to D). British investors are also less inclined to purchase U.S. securi­ties, moving the supply schedule of pounds to the left (S to S). Both activities raise the equilibrium exchange rate of the British pound in terms of U.S. dollars.

Figure 4

3. Factors affecting foreign exchange rates

· Balance-of-Payments Position

The exchange rate for any foreign currency depends on a multitude of factors reflecting economic and financial conditions in the country issuing the currency. One of the most important factors is the status of a nation's balance-of-payments position. When a country experiences a deficit in its balance of payments, it becomes a net demander of foreign currencies and is forced to sell substantial amounts of its own currency to pay for imports of goods and services. Therefore, balance-of-payments deficits often lead to price depreciation of a nation's currency relative to the prices of other currencies. For example, during most of the 1970s, 1980s, and into the 1990s, when the United States was experiencing deep balance-of-payments deficits and owed substantial amounts abroad for imported oil, the value of the dollar fell.

· Speculation

Exchange rates also are profoundly affected by speculation over future currency values. Dealers and investors in foreign exchange monitor the currency markets daily, looking for profitable trading opportunities. A currency viewed as temporarily undervalued quickly brings forth buy orders, driving its price higher vis-a-vis other currencies. A currency considered to be overvalued is greeted by a rash of sell orders, depressing its price. Today, the international financial system is so efficient and finely tuned that billions of dollars can flow across national boundaries in a matter of hours in response to speculative fever. These massive unregulated flows can wreak havoc with the plans of policymakers because currency trading affects interest rates and ultimately the entire economy.

· Domestic Economic and Political Conditions

The market for a national currency is, of course, influenced by domestic conditions. Wars, revolutions, the death of a political leader, inflation, recession, and labor strikes have all been observed to have adverse effects on the currency of a nation experiencing these problems. On the other hand, signs of rapid economic growth, improving government finances, rising stock and bond prices, and successful economic policies to control inflation and unemployment usually lead to a stronger currency in the exchange markets.

Inflation has a particularly potent impact on exchange rates, as do differences in real interest rates between nations. When one nation's inflation rate rises relative to others, its currency tends to fall in value. Similarly, a nation that reduces its inflation rate usually experiences a rise in the value of its currency. Moreover, countries with higher real interest rates generally experience an increase in the exchange value of their currencies, and countries with low real interest rates usually face relatively low currency prices.

· Government Intervention

It is known that each national government has its own system or policy of exchange-rate changes. Two of the most important are floating and fixed exchange-rate systems. In the floating system, a nation's monetary authorities, usually the central bank, do not attempt to prevent fundamental changes in the rate of exchange between its own currency and any other currency. In the fixed-rate system, a currency is kept fixed within a narrow range of values relative to some reference (or key) currency by governmental action.

National policymakers can influence exchange rates directly by buying or selling foreign currency in the market, and indirectly with policy actions that influence the volume of private transactions. A third method of influencing exchange rates is exchange control—i.e., direct control of foreign-exchange transactions.

Intervention of a central bank involves purchases or sales of the national money against a foreign money, most frequently the U.S. dollar. A central bank is obliged to prevent its currency from depreciating below its lower support limit. The central bank should buy its own currency from commercial banks oper­ating in the exchange market and sell them dollars in exchange. These trans­actions are effectively an open-market sale using dollar demand deposits rather than domestic bonds. Such transactions reduce the central bank's domestic liabilities in the hands of the public. The ability of a foreign cen­tral bank to prevent its currency from depreciating depends upon its hold­ings of dollars, together with dollars that might be obtained by borrowing. Even if a national monetary authority has the foreign exchange necessary for intervention, its need to support its currency in the exchange market might be inconsistent with its efforts to undertake a more expansive mone­tary policy to achieve its domestic economic objectives.

Also I’d like to say a few words about currency sterilization. A decision by a central bank to intervene in the foreign currency markets will have both currency market and money supply effects unless an operation known as currency sterilization is carried out. Any increase in reserves and deposits that results from a central bank currency purchase can be "sterilized" by using monetary policy tools that absorb reserves. There is currently a great debate among economists as to whether sterilized central bank intervention can significantly affect exchange rates, in either the short term or the long term, with most research studies finding little impact on relative currency prices.